Christine Benz at Morningstar has helpfully compiled the
The problem is… they are all over the place?! US stocks return predictions vary from 1.6% to 6.7% annualized. Developed international stock return predictions vary from 2.6% to 9.2% annualized. US Bond return predictions are close together, but these are easy to predict for everyone including even “dumb money” like me.
I used to keep track of these 10-year stock return predictions because they made me feel better about owning lagging asset classes. Now I mainly keep track of them with the expectation that I will look back in 10 years and realize how pointless they were, even though these are smart people trying their best.
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