The late Jack Bogle was often credited with the saying: “Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack.” If you look at the entire “haystack” of the overall market as hundreds and thousands of individual companies, over time there are a lot of losers and a few big winners, or “needles”.
In addition, I’d also add the saying that “The haystack is always changing.” Check out the table above of the top 10 largest US companies in different decades, updated as of 12/31/25 as collected by (this is a useful resource that is updated every quarter).
Notice that all the 1985 Top 10 companies are marked as green. There are fewer and fewer left in the top 10 after each decade that passes, and there are none in 2025. Most likely, by the time 2045 or 2065 rolls around – when you might be retired! – the Top 10 will include companies that don’t even exist today.
Investing in a simple market-cap index fund will always be criticized as “dumb” or “overweight this” or “underweight that”. I think weighing by the company value is a perfectly fine system for the patient, long-term investor. In the end, things shakes themselves out. If you buy the entire investable US stock market, or even extend this to the entire investable world stock market, you can be sure that you own all the eventual winners.
I enjoy not having to worry about things in the long term. If I feel like doing some active trading, I can, but I can also go weeks without checking a single stock ticker if I’m not in the mood.
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