I was surprised to read the NY Times article . Everything is written very carefully using odds so that there is no “prediction” that could be called “wrong” later on, but at the same time if there is a future recession, they will appear to have been “right”. I didn’t know that Vanguard did these sort of economic predictions or that they were deemed so noteworthy.
As the reminds us, all bull markets must eventually come to an end:
The question is, what is the point? What is actionable about this? You could view this article as encouraging market timing (sell stocks now!), or it could be a prudent reminder to rebalance and assess your risk exposure (sell a little stock now? maybe?). The latter is always a good idea, so let’s be generous and call it that. I wonder what Jack Bogle thinks. I mean, the title of his upcoming book about the history of Vanguard is .
For posterity, I wanted to record their expected 10-year (annualized) returns for the following asset classes (as of mid-2018):
- US Stocks 3.9%
- International Stocks 6.5%
- US Total Bond (Corporate + Government) 3.3%
- International Bonds 2.9%
- Commodities 5.9%
- US Treasury Bonds 3%
- Cash 2.9%
These are nominal numbers. In another , Vanguard projects inflation to run slightly under 2% annualized.
from .
© MyMoneyBlog.com, 2018.
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